Eurozone Recession Could Cut China’s Growth by 50%
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said today that a recession in the Eurozone would likely reduce China’s actual growth by about 50 percent of the current projection. That would place China’s growth for 2012 at roughly 4 percent should the Eurozone crisis devolve into a recession.
It is estimated that China needs to maintain yearly expansion in the range of 8 to 10 percent to meet the needs of its emerging workforce. While growth of this magnitude would result in crushing inflation in most economies, China has sufficient capacity to absorb this rate of growth.
This is due to the migration of China’s rural population to the fast-expanding rural centers in search of work. In fact, it was only in this past year that, for the first time in the nation’s long history, China’s urban residents finally outnumbered the rural population.
Still, this is not to say that inflation has not been a concern. In 2011, China’s economy grew by 9.2 percent even after the government acted to ease price inflation. Food staples in particular rose sharply in the past year far outpacing the rate of wage increases. Property values have also climbed forcing the government to implement a series of measures to curb speculation.
Greece Moves Closer to Default
Underscoring today’s IMF’s warning is the latest news indicating that Greece has failed to come to terms with European officials on the implementation of a second emergency funding package. Several deadlines have been missed to reach an agreement but time is becoming an ever-greater concern. Greece has a 14.4 billion euro ($10.9 billion) bond due on March 20th and time is running out to get the funding in place and prevent a default.
The failure to agree on a new debt deal is being blamed on Greece’s inability to get the leaders of the three main political parties to consent to acceptable terms. Still, progress has been made in some areas; the Greek leaders have tentatively agreed to spending cuts equal to 1.5 percent of the countries Gross Domestic Product.
Greece’s hesitance is understandable given the degree of public opposition the proposed spending cuts. The country’s largest public sector unions have already threatened to impose a nation-wide strike expected to bring the country to a virtual stand-still later this week.
Regardless of the public hostility, European leaders are clearly losing patience with the Greek government’s continued foot-dragging. French President Nicolas Sarkozy was quoted as saying that European governments “want this accord” at a press conference in Paris earlier today.
“Greece’s leader have made commitments and they must respect them scrupulously,” warned Sarkozy. “Europe is a place where everyone has their rights and duties. Time is running out, it needs to be concluded, it needs to be signed.”
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US Curve Flatter Despite a bid EUR
Even stronger domestic fundamental data cannot pressure US bond prices. Longer dated securities again have caught a bid on concerns that the Greek Prime minister has requested the country’s finance ministry to prepare a document on the implications of a Greek default. Earlier today Treasuries came under pressure as dealers prepared to take down +$72b of new product this week. The government is to auction +$32b in three-year notes tomorrow, followed by +$24b of 10-year debt on Wednesday and $16b long-bonds on Thursday.
Merkel and Sarkozy indicated in Paris this morning that time was running out for Greece.
Any negative headlines regarding Greece and rumors of default will only increase the markets appetite for risk aversion trading strategies. Before today, long bonds managed to back up +18bp over the past three trading sessions. Despite initially been oversold on the back of a stellar NFP report that saw the US unemployment rate improve three ticks to +8.3%, the 2/30’s yield curve has flattened -3bp to +286bp.
Prime Minister Papademos over the weekend asked the ministry “to record accurately and realistically all the consequences of the country’s exit from the euro zone.” Greece still has not come to an agreement on the austerity measures needed to qualify for a second bailout from the EU and IMF. Today, the Greek government has agreed in principle to axe -15k workers to fulfill one of Troikas conditions (a reason why the EUR has temporarily caught ‘a second wind’). Papademos needs to receive funds by March in order to avoid a ‘disorderly default’. Not helping market sentiment are the negotiations between Greece and the PSI bondholders remaining unresolved.
All parties concerned have a strong incentive to reach a deal and it would not be surprise to see an agreement in the next few days. However, once a deal is reached, markets again will begin to focus on the degree of actual participation in the swap by bondholders. The market seems to be looking for other reasons to apply risk aversion trading strategies.
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